NFL Week 15 Odds: Seahawks TNF Favorites, Broncos Underdogs vs. Patriots

Leave a comment

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks take a track record of bouncing back into their prime-time game against the Los Angeles Rams, who just axed coach Jeff Fisher. The Seahawks are listed as 15-point favorites against the Rams with a 38.5-point total, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

In spite of a pitiful six-turnover effort against the Green Bay Packers in Week 14, the Seahawks face their largest line since their 2013 Super Bowl season. Seattle is 7-0 straight-up and 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games after a loss, but the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Seahawks.

Wilson is coming off the worst game of his Seahawks career, but facing a weak Rams pass rush might be the tonic for him to recover. With a rookie QB, Jared Goff, and interim coach Jim Fassel on the sideline, one probably shouldn’t count on much output from Los Angeles’ offense.

The New England Patriots are favored by three points against the host Denver Broncos in an AFC Championship Game rematch. New England is 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips into Denver, but the Broncos’ inability to run the ball and stop the run could tilt the playing field toward Tom Brady, especially if RB LeGarrette Blount gets going.

The New York Giants are 4.5-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. Lions QB Matthew Stafford (dislocated middle finger) will be playing hurt in a late-season outdoor game and one wonders how long the Lions can sustain their knack for fourth-quarter rallies. That said, the inconsistency of the Eli Manning-led offense makes the Giants a shaky play at minus-4.5.

The Miami Dolphins are 2.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets in a Saturday matchup. While backup QB Matt Moore has a short week to get ready to replace Ryan Tannehill (knee), the Dolphins are also facing one of the NFL’s leakiest pass defenses. Jets rookie QB Bryce Petty will have to decode a solid Miami defense that has film on him after his  Week 14 start in San Francisco.

In a matchup of teams dearly clinging to playoff life, the Minnesota Vikings are favored by four points against the Indianapolis Colts. Neither the Colts’ Andrew Luck nor the Vikings’ Sam Bradford has been able to count on adequate pass protection. The game could come down to whether the Vikings shut down RB Frank Gore and make the Colts offense one-dimensional. Minnesota is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 interconference games.

And the Dallas Cowboys are seven-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott has struggled against strong pass rushes in the past two games (against the Vikings and Giants) and the vastly improved Bucs defense, with 30 sacks, can get to the quarterback. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will be seeking a bounce-back performance against a suspect Dallas pass defense.

NFL Thanksgiving Day betting guide: Odds, trends for trio of matchups

Leave a comment

Whether the Dallas Cowboys can break both their funk and a trend of failing to cover against sub-.500 teams might hinge largely on the status of one man – left tackle Tyron Smith.

The Cowboys host a pick-’em on Thursday against the Los Angeles Chargers with a 48-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The OddsShark NFL Database notes that the Cowboys are an underwhelming 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 home games against teams with losing records like Los Angeles, so having Smith (back/groin) return from a two-game absence will be paramount against a Chargers team that has one of the NFL’s best pass rushes, led by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

The Chargers are 4-6 straight-up and 5-4-1 ATS, but with veteran QB Philip Rivers’ savvy they are good on short weeks, sporting a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five Thursday games. The Cowboys, who are 5-5 both SU and ATS, could impose their will on the Chargers in the rushing phase. Alfred Morris has been a bright spot with Ezekiel Elliott injured, and Dallas leads the NFL in yards per rush while Los Angeles gives up the most yards per rush.

The total has gone over in three of the Chargers’ last four games against the Cowboys. The total has gone over in seven of the Cowboys’ last nine games in the late afternoon.

Earlier on Thursday, the Minnesota Vikings are three-point road favorites against the Detroit Lions, with a 44.5 total.

The Vikings are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS, and bettors will have to decide whether to give more weight toward their head-to-head showing against the Lions – 0-3 SU in their last three – or a 6-0 SU streak that began after a Week 4 home loss against Detroit. The favored team is just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games of this matchup. The Lions, who QB Matthew Stafford has led to a 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS record, have shown a tendency to hit their stride in late November. They are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight home games in November.

The total has gone under in seven of the last eight games in this matchup.

And the Washington Redskins are set as 7.5-point favorites against the New York Giants, with a 44.5 total in the primetime matchup on Thursday.

The main question with the Giants and QB Eli Manning, who are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS, is whether they maintain the same urgency they had in Week 11 when they upset the Kansas City Chiefs, assuaging the pressure on head coach Ben McAdoo. The form suggests that’s unlikely, as New York is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Redskins, who are 4-6 both SU and ATS, should rate a good shot at putting up a point total somewhere in the high 20s, since QB Kirk Cousins is playing well and RB Samaje Perrine looks like a ready-made replacement for the injured Chris Thompson.

The total has gone under in eight of the Giants’ last 11 games against the Redskins. Whether that trend holds will come down to the chess match between the Giants offense (30th in scoring) and Redskins defense (31st in scoring defense).

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com

Eagles, Wentz Big Favorites Against Depleted Cowboys on Sunday Night

Leave a comment

Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles go into a road team-dominated rivalry game on Sunday night against a Dallas Cowboys opponent that struggles as a home underdog

The Eagles are listed as 4.5-point road favorites against the Cowboys with a 48-point total for the Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The visiting team is 6-2 straight-up in its last eight games in this NFC East matchup and 8-3 against the spread in the last 11. Dallas, which will not have key performers such as RB Ezekiel Elliott (suspension), LT Tryon Smith (groin, back) and LB Sean Lee (hamstring), is also an inauspicious 2-8 SU and 4-4-2 ATS in its last 10 games as the underdog at AT&T Stadium.

The first priority for the Eagles, who are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, will be making sure RT Lane Johnson can contain DE Demarcus Lawrence, who already has 11.5 sacks. That’s easier said than done, but the Eagles have myriad rushing and short-passing threats they can use to slow up the Cowboys’ pass rush. Lee often shadows tight ends and running backs. If Philly’s leading receiver, TE Zach Ertz (hamstring, probable) is good to go, then the Eagles should have a well-balanced passing game.

The Cowboys give up a below-average 4.3 yards per rush and DT Maliek Collins (foot) could be missing from the interior of the front seven. Every bit of extra yardage the likes of Jay Ajayi grinds out will help Philadelphia, which is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 5.0 or fewer points, avoid the obvious passing downs where Lawrence can tee off with a speed rush.

The Cowboys, who are 5-4 both SU and ATS, will need their second-year QB Dak Prescott to carry the load with his passing. Leading receiver Dez Bryant (ankle) will likely tough it out, but Philadelphia permits only 6.6 yards per pass (ninth in the NFL) and the pass coverage should get shored up by the return of CB Ronald Darby (ankle), who has been out for a month.

With no Elliott to hit the holes or Smith to open them, it’s hard to see how Dallas’ ground game will get traction against an elite Eagles defensive line fortified by DT Fletcher Cox and DE Brandon Graham. Philly allows only 3.6 yards per rush.

The total has gone over in six of the Eagles’ last eight games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The total has gone under in nine of the Cowboys’ last 11 games as an underdog.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.