Sunday Night Football: Broncos hope for bye-week bump as favorites against Chiefs

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The Denver Broncos bring a post-bye week win streak into their matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos are the 3.5-point betting favorite against the Chiefs with a 39.5-point total in the Sunday night matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

While Denver is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, a more pertinent metric might be that the Broncos are 8-2 both straight-up and ATS in games after the bye week since 2006. The Chiefs also own an impressive trend of being 7-0 SU in their last seven divisional games.

The teams are tied for second in the AFC West and the winner will greatly improve its playoff prospects.

For Kansas City, which is 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS, there could be added pressure on QB Alex Smith and the offense to perform since their 20th-ranked defense is maddeningly inconsistent. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, as a member of the Cleveland Browns last season, limited reigning Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to one quarterback pressure. Containing Miller will be essential.

Kansas City could be challenged in the passing phase since the possible absence of No. 1 WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) would mean that Broncos pass defenders such as CB Chris Harris, FS Darian Stewart and CB Aqib Talib can put more focus on WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Kelce has not scored a touchdown in four career games against the Broncos.

Denver’s third-ranked defense does allow a generous 4.4 yards per carry. As long as the time and score permit staying on the ground, Chiefs RB Spencer Ware should be able to grind out some tough yards.

Denver is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS. In their last outing, the Broncos won in New Orleans as the underdog and they happen to be 13-2 SU in their last 15 games after winning as the underdog. The Broncos’ offense, with starting QB Trevor Siemian, is the sixth-least productive in the NFL, but whether the Chiefs’ defense has the edge is questionable. Kansas City will have top CB Marcus Peters back to fortify their coverage against WR Demaryius Thomas and WR Emmanuel Sanders.

Three core members of Kansas City’s front seven – DE Jaye Howard (hip), NT Dontari Poe (knee) and ILB Derrick Johnson – are probably going to play hurt. That might help facilitate some openings for RB Devontae Booker. Against a Chiefs team with an NFL-best +13 giveaway/takeaway ratio, Siemian is going to have to be disciplined in order to make sure Denver cashes in their scoring opportunities.

The total has gone under in the Chiefs’ last six games. The total has gone under in four of the Broncos’ last five games with a closing total of 40 points or less.

Drew Brees, Le’Veon Bell Favorites in NFL Season Leader Props

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When it comes to betting props on NFL individual leaders, the tried-and-true works for picking a passing yards leader while rushing and receiving leaders are a little more random.

With training camps set to open in a matter of days, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is a +300 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Brees has led (or co-led) the NFL in aerial yards five times in the last six seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2013 when Peyton Manning complied a NFL-record 5,477.

Brees will still have Willie Snead and Michael Thomas as outlets for his passes and, assuming the Saints’ defense stays near the bottom of the league, will have the opportunity to get into a few offensive shootouts.

The Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan (+400) and New England Patriots’ Tom Brady (+500) are the next two on the board. Ryan and the Falcons are likely to face a tougher schedule than what it turned out they had in 2016. Brady has only led the NFL in yards once, in 2007, and would be the oldest player to do so if he succeeds this season.

Based on 2016 won-loss records, the Indianapolis Colts and QB Andrew Luck (+1400) have the easiest schedule in the league, which could lead to Luck putting up some big numbers against softer competition. Another valid darkhorse play is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Jameis Winston (+1600), since he will have a 1-2 punch at receiver with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson and a team that still relies on being pass-heavy.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell (+300) and Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott (+350) are tightly bunched atop the NFL rushing champion futures board. Bell will no doubt be among the leaders in yards from scrimmage per game, but he’s only played 16 games once in four seasons. While there hasn’t been a back-to-back rushing leader in 10 years, Elliott will be running behind an excellent Dallas offensive line.

The Los Angeles Rams’ third-year workhorse Todd Gurley (+2000) will be in a new offensive system and, hopefully for the Rams, will be better complemented by second-year QB Jared Goff in the passing phase. That would give Gurley a fairer shot at breaking big runs on the regular.

Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown (+400) and Atlanta’s Julio Jones (+400) are co-favorites on the odds to tally the most receiving yards, with the New York Giants’ Odell Beckham (+500) also coming in highly touted. Brown had two fewer targets per game in 2016 than in ’15, meaning he might be a less high-volume receiver now that he is 29. Jones has a receiving title from 2015, but last season the Falcons were most efficient when they spread the ball around.

Last year, the Indianapolis Colts’ T.Y. Hilton (+1200 this year) led the league in yards after being listed at +3300 in the preseason. Among the potential 2017 replicants are New England’s Brandin Cooks (+3300), who is expected to be the field-stretching target the Patriots have managed to do without since the Randy Moss days a decade ago. The aforementioned Mike Evans (+1200) is also close to a sure thing to get 11-12 targets per game in Tampa Bay and the continued development of Winston could make him a 1,500-yard receiver.

The last 12 league leaders in receiving yardage have been less than 30 years old at the start of the season. That trend has been consistent dating to the mid-1990s, with 19 of the last 21 receiving leaders being players who were no older than 29 at the start of the season.

Internet reacts to O.J. Simpson’s parole hearing

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In case you weren’t aware, O.J. Simpson was granted parole and the internet went crazy.

Cue hilarious tweets.