The Denver Broncos bring a post-bye week win streak into their matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos are the 3.5-point betting favorite against the Chiefs with a 39.5-point total in the Sunday night matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
While Denver is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, a more pertinent metric might be that the Broncos are 8-2 both straight-up and ATS in games after the bye week since 2006. The Chiefs also own an impressive trend of being 7-0 SU in their last seven divisional games.
The teams are tied for second in the AFC West and the winner will greatly improve its playoff prospects.
For Kansas City, which is 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS, there could be added pressure on QB Alex Smith and the offense to perform since their 20th-ranked defense is maddeningly inconsistent. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, as a member of the Cleveland Browns last season, limited reigning Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to one quarterback pressure. Containing Miller will be essential.
Kansas City could be challenged in the passing phase since the possible absence of No. 1 WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) would mean that Broncos pass defenders such as CB Chris Harris, FS Darian Stewart and CB Aqib Talib can put more focus on WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Kelce has not scored a touchdown in four career games against the Broncos.
Denver’s third-ranked defense does allow a generous 4.4 yards per carry. As long as the time and score permit staying on the ground, Chiefs RB Spencer Ware should be able to grind out some tough yards.
Denver is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS. In their last outing, the Broncos won in New Orleans as the underdog and they happen to be 13-2 SU in their last 15 games after winning as the underdog. The Broncos’ offense, with starting QB Trevor Siemian, is the sixth-least productive in the NFL, but whether the Chiefs’ defense has the edge is questionable. Kansas City will have top CB Marcus Peters back to fortify their coverage against WR Demaryius Thomas and WR Emmanuel Sanders.
Three core members of Kansas City’s front seven – DE Jaye Howard (hip), NT Dontari Poe (knee) and ILB Derrick Johnson – are probably going to play hurt. That might help facilitate some openings for RB Devontae Booker. Against a Chiefs team with an NFL-best +13 giveaway/takeaway ratio, Siemian is going to have to be disciplined in order to make sure Denver cashes in their scoring opportunities.
The total has gone under in the Chiefs’ last six games. The total has gone under in four of the Broncos’ last five games with a closing total of 40 points or less.