Indians look to close out World Series as Game 6 underdogs at home

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The good news for Cleveland Indians fans is that almost 80 percent of MLB teams that come home with a 3-2 series lead do win – but the bad news is it might take another loss to produce a big betting payoff.

Ahead of Game 6 at Progressive Field, Cleveland is set at -230 in the series prices, while the rallying Chicago Cubs are listed at +190 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

For Tuesday’s game itself, which has a pitching matchup of Chicago RHP Jake Arrieta and Cleveland RHP Josh Tomlin, the Cubs are listed at -143 to win with the Indians the +133 underdogs. The total for the game is set at seven runs.

A Cubs win that forces a Game 7 would cause the odds to shift – but Cleveland would still have their ace Corey Kluber, with his 0.89 postseason era, taking the ball. Kyle Hendricks is the Cubs’ scheduled starter for Game 7.

In MLB postseason history, 69 of 81 teams that took a 3-1 series lead went on to finish the job, so missing the first chance to clinch hasn’t been a big deal. Also, 55.3 percent of teams which have come home for Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead have immediately closed it out.

Cleveland is 6-4 in Tomlin’s last 10 home starts, but that does not reflect the scintillating 1.71 earned run average he has posted since September 1, when he junked his cut fastball and started relying on his curveball.

The righty is working on three days’ rest for only the second time in his career, the other instance having come in 2010. That might not pose a problem since Tomlin is relying on his curveball, and only threw 58 pitches during his start last Friday in Game 3.

With the off-day after a loss, manager Terry Francona should have a fully stocked bullpen. Lefty relief ace Andrew Miller, who has been near-untouchable in the playoffs, has had two days off since throwing 27 pitches in Game 4.

The Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 road games as a favorite with Arrieta as their starting pitcher.

Arrieta was credited with the Game 2 win in Cleveland after allowing one run and two hits over 5.2 innings.

Arrieta is clearly not at his best, with a 4.30 ERA in eight starts since September 1. However, if he gets touched up for an early run or two, the Cubs hitters – 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Kris Bryant, SS Addison Russell and others – will have the benefit of seeing Tomlin for the second time.

No team has overcome a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series since the 1985 Kansas City Royals.

Dodgers Open World Series as Betting Favorites

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The Los Angeles Dodgers offer a better price at the start of this year’s World Series than last season’s favorite did, but value bettors could still be pushed toward the Houston Astros.

The Dodgers are the -170 betting favorite over the +150 underdog Astros on the World Series prices at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. While the Dodgers had Major League Baseball’s best regular-season record and are 7-1 in the postseason, the odds are closer to parity than they were on the eve of the 2016 World Series when the Chicago Cubs were listed at -190 with the Cleveland Indians coming back at +165.

And of course, those Cubs had to win Games 5, 6 and 7 to capture their first World Series title in 108 years.

The combination of being from America’s second-largest city and being in the Fall Classic for the first time in 29 years is driving some big money toward the Dodgers. If one believes Houston can pull this off, it’s probably best to wait until close to the start of Game 1 at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday.

Conversely, a Game 1 win would drive the Dodgers’ value down even farther. For example, they were a -190 favorite before the NLCS and came down to -290 after taking Game 1 against the Cubs.

The strong suit of the Astros’ lineup, which is led by 2B Jose Altuve, is that they can handle high-velocity fastballs in the strike zone. While the Dodgers bullpen has an earned-run average of 0.94 during the playoffs, power-armed relievers such as Brandon Morrow and Kenley Jansen might not fare as well at fogging high heat by hitters like they did in the NLDS and NLCS.

In a similar but different way, the Dodgers’ lineup isn’t vulnerable to Houston’s strongest suit. Justin Verlander, who will start Game 2 on Wednesday, and reliever Lance McCullers excel at making hitters chase breaking balls out of the strike zone, but 1B Cody Bellinger, 3B Justin Turner and the Dodgers hitters possess exceptional plate discipline and led the NL in bases on balls drawn. In other words, there’s a chance for some scoring battles.

Game 1 on Tuesday is an all-lefty matchup between Astros sinkerballer Dallas Keuchel and Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are a -165 Game 1 favorite with the Astros coming back at +155. The total is at 7 runs.

Houston is 19-8 in Keuchel starts this season, including 2-1 during the postseason. Since August 2016, the Astros are 14-3 when Keuchel starts on the road.

Los Angeles is 26-4 when Kershaw starts, including 3-0 during the postseason. The Dodgers are also 18-2 in the last 20 Kershaw starts where they were favored. The total has gone OVER in three of Kershaw’s last four starts at home.

With a heat wave expected to put the game-time temperature in the vicinity of 100 degrees on Tuesday, there’s a chance the ball could jump off hitters’ bats and pitchers might fatigue at a higher rate. That could favor OVER bettors.

One odd fact is that this is the fifth World Series between an American League team from the Central time zone and a National League team from the Pacific time zone. The NL team has won all four. None of the four was a sweep.

Dodgers, Indians are World Series favorites in MLB postseason

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Last October was a rare instance where the team with the best record in baseball won the World Series, which is something to keep in mind before laying the favorite.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the +300 favorite on the World Series odds as the MLB playoffs begin Tuesday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Cleveland Indians (+350) are a close second favorite.

From there, the board spreads out to the teams with Division Series home-field advantage, the Houston Astros (+500) and Washington Nationals (+700), followed by the Boston Red Sox (+800) and defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs (+800).

Wild-card teams have won six of the last 22 World Series, while the top regular-season team has triumphed in only seven of the last 31. So there is potential to cash in early on the value of a wild-card team. The New York Yankees (+1400) stack up well against the Minnesota Twins (+2800) in the wild-card game. However, Aaron Judge, et al., fared poorly in their season series against both Cleveland and Houston.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+1400), conversely, won the season series against the NL West rival Dodgers and might have the starting pitching and slugging prowess to take them out in a best-of-five NLDS. The Diamondbacks have to first get by the Colorado Rockies (+2800).

While MLB has not had a team repeat as World Series champions since 2000, teams that make a World Series seem more apt to do it again, regardless of what happened in the regular season (see the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012 and 2014). The Cubs, who have had their act together since the all-star break, are well-priced at 8/1.

It could well be that this is the year the Dodgers, five-time NL West champions, figure it out. But of the top seeds in each league, Cleveland played better in the second half and has lights-out pitching on the front end through the likes of Corey Kluber and on the back end with Cody Allen and lefty Andrew Miller in the bullpen.

As far as the wild-card matchups go, the Yankees (-235) are heavily favored against the Twins (+200), with a 7.5-run total in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game Yankees RHP Luis Severino is MLB’s hardest-throwing starter this season and the Twins are not a team of fastball hitters. Severino has limited batters to a .207/.265/.362 slash line (batting average, on-base and slugging percentage) this season at Yankee Stadium.

Twins RHP Ervin Santana also has a lifetime 6.43 earned run average in six games at Yankee Stadium, while allowing a .310/.379/.486 slash line.

The Yankees, with the likes of RHP Dellin Betances and LHP Aroldis Chapman, possess a deeper bullpen than the Twins. The total has gone under in five of Twins’ last seven road games against the Yankees.

The Diamondbacks (-166) are favored against the Rockies (+156) with an 8.5-run total in Wednesday’s NL wild-card game. Arizona is likely to start ace RHP Zack Greinke, who held the Rockies to a .229/.241/.435 slash line in five starts this season.

The Rockies’ presumptive starter, Jon Gray, is MLB’s second-hardest throwing starter. That could end up being in Arizona’s wheelhouse since power threats such as 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 3B Mike Lamb and RF J.D. Martinez make them one of baseball’s best teams at hitting against high velocity. If Arizona has a fatal flaw, it’s that closer Fernando Rodney has been human at home this season.

Arizona is 7-2 straight-up in its last nine games against the Rockies. The total has gone under in four of these teams’ last six games at Chase Field.