Patriots, Packers home favorites for Week 6, Broncos are road chalk

Leave a comment

With Tom Brady back, the New England Patriots will try to get back to their winning ways at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6 of the NFL season.

The Patriots are listed as 8.5-point favorites against the Bengals, with a total of 47, at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. New England, minus Brady, lost to Buffalo in their previous outing at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 9-0 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games after a loss at home.

The Green Bay Packers are four-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. The total is 47. The Packers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.

The Houston Texans are favored by three points against the Indianapolis Colts in the Sunday Night Football matchup. The total is 46. The Texans are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home. The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Texans.

No longer undefeated, the Denver Broncos are three-point road favorites against the San Diego Chargers. The total is 45.5 for their Thursday Night Football matchup. The Broncos are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games after a loss. The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records.

The Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 2.5 points against the host Washington Redskins. The total is 45. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Redskins. The Redskins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

The Oakland Raiders are one-point favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs. The total is 46.5. The Chiefs are 10-3 SU and ATS in their last 13 road games against the Raiders. Oakland is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 October home games according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by six points against the Atlanta Falcons. The total is 46. The Falcons, who just beat the Broncos, are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games after winning as an underdog. The Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 6.

Despite a three-game skid, the New York Giants are favored by three points against the Baltimore Ravens. The total is 43.5. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home after consecutive ATS losses at home. The Ravens, who lost in Washington in Week 5, are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games after losing as a favorite.

And the Arizona Cardinals are favored by 7.5 points against the New York Jets in the Monday Night Football betting matchup. The total is 47. The Jets, who have lost twice in a row, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, and with just one win on the season their postseason expectancy has plummetted from 31.8% to 4.2% since the start of the season according to website PredictionMachine.com.

Packers underdogs against the Falcons in NFC Championship game

Leave a comment

The best defense is an unstoppable offense, and Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons simply haven’t been stopped when they are a healthy favorite.

The Falcons are listed as five-point favorites against red-hot Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers with an eye-popping 60-point total on the NFL lines for the NFC Championship Game at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

It is the sixth time this season the Falcons have given between 3.5 and 6.0 points, and while they are 3-2 straight-up and against the spread in that scenario they scored at least 28 points every time.

While the Falcons have to turn around some negative trends – such as 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the NFC North, according to the OddsShark NFL Database – it’s doubtful any collapse would be attributable to their offense.

The Packers, who are 12-6 SU and 10-7-1 ATS, have relied on Rodgers and his stellar pass protection to shred opposing defenses during their eight-win streak. It seems the only way to contain Rodgers is to blitz him. Although OLB Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks in the regular season, the Falcons play straight defense more frequently than the NFL average.

It’s possible the Packers could repeat the scenario of recent weeks, with Rodgers getting scads of time to wait for a receiver to get open. That is contingent on the health of those receivers. Leading receiver Jordy Nelson (ribs) is a remote shot to play while Davante Adams (ankle), Geronimo Allison (leg), Jeff Janis (quadriceps) are each banged up.

Both RB Ty Montgomery and TE Jared Cook have become reliable cogs for the Packers since their loss to the Falcons last week. Atlanta does not have an overly strong run defense.

The Falcons, who are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS, do have to be concerned with how many snaps WR Julio Jones (toe) will be able to play on Sunday. The true linchpins in Atlanta’s attack, though, are RB Tevin Coleman and RB Devonta Freeman, whose versatility as ball carriers and receivers has to be accounted for at all times.

The Falcons are very physical in the rushing phase and it will be interesting to see whether the Packers are up to it after so many do-or-done games, including last week’s instant classic against Dallas where they gave up 125 yards to the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott.

Jones, WR Taylor Gabriel and WR Mohamed Sanu are facing a Packers pass defense that has struggled all season. Green Bay was among the NFL leaders in sacks, but the Falcons’ continuity along the offensive line (all five starters have been intact all season) should help them with making adjustments.

The favored team is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last three years in conference championship games.  The total has gone over in seven of the last 10 conference championship games.

Brady, Patriots betting favorites hosting Steelers in AFC Championship game

Leave a comment

The feeling that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have one creaky effort out of their system spurs the idea they can continue to be nearly automatic at home. The Patriots are listed as 5.5-point betting favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 50.5-point total for the AFC Championship Game, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Not only has New England long enjoyed the upper hand against the Steelers – 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 matchups – but they are also 9-2 ATS on the NFL betting lines in their last 11 home games at Gillette Stadium and 8-1 SU in their last nine home games against teams with winning records.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, who are 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS, are on a nine-win streak thanks to building their offense around shifty and tireless RB Le’Veon Bell. New England’s run defense is far stronger than what Pittsburgh has seen so far in the playoffs, but it’s doubtful Bell’s production will completely dry up since the Patriots are too smart to over-commit to stopping him.

While WR Antonio Brown can be nightmarish to cover, the Steelers’ lack of receiving threats beyond him might make it tough for Roethlisberger to pick apart the Patriots’ pass defense, although his offensive line should be able to give him time to throw.

Having success as an underdog in January is not a role in which the Steelers historically thrive; they are 3-10 SU in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Patriots, who are 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS, have only been stopped this season when Brady and the offense encounter a dominant pass rush. After a slow start in that phase, Pittsburgh has improved immensely due to the trio of OLB Bud Dupree, ageless OLB James Harrison and DE Stephon Tuitt, who will have to get by the strong pass protection of Patriots RT Marcus Cannon and LT Nate Solder.

The Steelers pass defenders have occasionally been beaten deep. Among the Patriots’ speed receivers, Chris Hogan (thigh) seems more likely to be 100 percent than Malcolm Mitchell (knee). Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman also offer the potential to spread the Steelers thin.

New England, the Super Bowl 51 betting favorites, used leading rusher LeGarrette Blount sparingly in the Divisional Round, which could have been a factor in the Patriots’ offense being sporadic. Blount has had a full week of practice this time.

The visiting team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last three years in conference championship games. The total has gone under in the Patriots’ last six AFC Championship Game matchups. The total has gone under in nine of the Steelers’ last 11 games as an underdog.