Patriots, Packers home favorites for Week 6, Broncos are road chalk

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With Tom Brady back, the New England Patriots will try to get back to their winning ways at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6 of the NFL season.

The Patriots are listed as 8.5-point favorites against the Bengals, with a total of 47, at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. New England, minus Brady, lost to Buffalo in their previous outing at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 9-0 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games after a loss at home.

The Green Bay Packers are four-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. The total is 47. The Packers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.

The Houston Texans are favored by three points against the Indianapolis Colts in the Sunday Night Football matchup. The total is 46. The Texans are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home. The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Texans.

No longer undefeated, the Denver Broncos are three-point road favorites against the San Diego Chargers. The total is 45.5 for their Thursday Night Football matchup. The Broncos are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games after a loss. The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records.

The Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 2.5 points against the host Washington Redskins. The total is 45. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Redskins. The Redskins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

The Oakland Raiders are one-point favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs. The total is 46.5. The Chiefs are 10-3 SU and ATS in their last 13 road games against the Raiders. Oakland is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 October home games according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by six points against the Atlanta Falcons. The total is 46. The Falcons, who just beat the Broncos, are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games after winning as an underdog. The Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 6.

Despite a three-game skid, the New York Giants are favored by three points against the Baltimore Ravens. The total is 43.5. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home after consecutive ATS losses at home. The Ravens, who lost in Washington in Week 5, are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games after losing as a favorite.

And the Arizona Cardinals are favored by 7.5 points against the New York Jets in the Monday Night Football betting matchup. The total is 47. The Jets, who have lost twice in a row, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, and with just one win on the season their postseason expectancy has plummetted from 31.8% to 4.2% since the start of the season according to website PredictionMachine.com.

Texans set to host Chiefs in a pick’em betting matchup on Sunday night

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The prospect of untested linemen trying to block the likes of J.J. Watt has the sharps projecting the Kansas City Chiefs for their first loss of the season. The Houston Texans and the Chiefs, the NFL’s last unbeaten team, meet in a Sunday Night Football matchup that has moved to a pick’em on the betting lines at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Chiefs were initially laying 3.5 points against the Texans, who they are a 3-1 straight-up against in their last four meetings, but QB Alex Smith (ankle) might have to be careful with an injury, while various ailments will mean backups will step in for RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and C Mitch Morse.

Each team takes an extreme against-the-spread trend into this rematch. The Chiefs are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight road games. The Texans are 3-21-1 ATS in their last 25 games at night.

The Chiefs, who are 4-0 SU and ATS, have endless ways to attack a defense and get linebackers to take themselves out of the play. That could mean some big opportunities for RB Kareem Hunt in both the rushing and passing phases. Smith, who has the NFL’s highest passer rating, will need to be somewhat nimble to avoid the Texans’ fierce pass rush of Watt, OLB Jadeveon Clowney and OLB Whitney Mercilus.

Houston is allowing 7.6 yards per pass, 23rd in the NFL, so there’s questions of whether the Texans will be able to keep WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce completely contained.

The Texans are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. Three starts into his NFL career, QB Deshaun Watson has shown that his mobility and vision can flummox even legendary defensive minds such as New England coach Bill Belichick and Tennessee Titans defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau.

Against a pass rush that will once again not have OLB Dee Ford (back) to pair with OLB Justin Houston, Watson might be able to buy some time with his legs. That could give an extra advantage to the WR combo of Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins, who have a tough matchup on the outside against the CB tandem of Marcus Peters and Terrance Mitchell for some long-yardage strikes.

Houston is 1-8 SU in its last nine Week 5 games, but seem to finally have a balanced offense, with RB Lamar Miller churning out yards between the tackles and also catching short-range passes. The total has gone under in three of the Chiefs’ last four games against the Texans, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The total has gone over in 11 of the Texans’ last 13 games in October.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

Sunday Night Football has Seahawks as large favorites hosting the Colts

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October has been the cruelest month for bettors who back the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson for a cover at home, but they are facing a quarterback making his first road start.

The Seahawks are listed as as 13-point favourites against the Indianapolis Colts with a 41.5-point total for their Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Seattle  is 10-1 straight-up in its last 11 games following losses, and they are 0-5 against the spread in their last five October home games.

The Colts, who are out of the gate at 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, will be sending young QB Jacoby Brissett into one of the NFL’s loudest stadiums, CenturyLink Field. Brissett’s chances of success could hinge largely on how much support he gets in the rushing phase, which pits the Colts’ struggling ground game against a Seattle run defense that is third-worst in the NFL.

Based on form and personnel, the Seahawks might be more apt to break out and keep Colts RB Frank Gore below 100 yards.

Indianapolis, which is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS on the NFL betting lines in its last 10 games against NFC teams, will likely need to rely on Brissett’s mobility, since the Colts offensive line has allowed 11 sacks and will be up against premier pass rushers such as DE Michael Bennett.

However, Seattle’s opponents have had some success challenging CB Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom secondary, and Colts WR T.Y. Hilton has given Seattle fits in the past (140 yards in a 2013 game).

Taking the Seahawks, who are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, and the points is a gamble as long as QB Russell Wilson and the offense persist in having slow starts. While it’s hard for defensive guys on struggling teams to get noticed, the likes of ILB Jon Bostic and ILB Antonio Morrison have helped the Colts toughen up on that side of the ball. For all its issues with run blocking, the Seahawks have at least identified a primary running back in Chris Carson.

Wilson’s favorite target, WR Doug Baldwin (groin), has an injury that bettors should keep tabs on right up until kickoff. But where Indianapolis is really struggling in pass defense is against throws to the middle of the field, especially to tight ends and running backs. That means there’s a big opportunity for TE Jimmy Graham, as well as Carson, to be X-factors on Sunday.

Seattle is 10-0 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 home games against AFC teams, but was a double-digit favorite in all three of those against the spread losses. The total has gone over in seven of the Colts’ last eight games as road underdogs. The total has gone over in 18 of the Seahawks’ last 24 games when hosting a East Coast team.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.