Packers projected to finish under10.5 wins at NFL prediction site

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The Green Bay Packers have an OVER/UNDER wins total of 10.5 for the season ahead at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, and one NFL prediction website has the UNDER wager pegged as the correct choice on that betting line heading into the 2016 campaign.

At PredictionMachine.com the Packers are projected to win 10.1 games in the season ahead, which would be in line with their 2015 performance in which they posted a 10-6 record. That was good for just second place in the NFC North standings behind the 11-5 Minnesota Vikings, with the Packers then having to settle for a Wild Card berth in the NFC postseason.

Green Bay beat Washington soundly in a 35-18 victory on Wild Card Weekend last season, but they came up short in a 26-20 loss at Arizona against the Cardinals in the second round.

The Packers went OVER 10.5 wins on the season as recently as 2014, when they posted a 12-4 record and won the NFC North title. Green Bay has picked up 56 wins over the past five seasons, an average of 11.2 wins per year, highlighted by the team’s 15-1 mark back in 2011.

And while that preseason projection has the Packers falling UNDER 10.5 wins on the season, at the sportsbooks the OVER is the chalk wager at -175 (bet $175 to win $100). Green Bay is also the -180 favorite on the odds to win the NFC North, and at +850 on the Super Bowl odds.

That +850 line has the Packers second behind only the New England Patriots (+600) on the Super Bowl LI odds, and Aaron Rodgers and company are also ranked as the second most likely team to win the title at PredictionMachine.com; the website ran the 2016 NFL campaign 50,000 times, with the Packers ending up winning the Super Bowl 9.7% of the time overall.

The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 11.7% of the projections, with the Cardinals coming out on top 8.9% of the time. The top AFC team according to the predictive score modeling site is actually the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl 7.3% of the time in the projections. The Patriots fell behind in that computer simulation, winning 6% of the time.

The Packers will get their regular-season schedule underway on Sunday, September 11 when they pay a visit to the Jacksonville Jaguars. PredictionMachine.com gives the Packers a 61.9% chance of winning that game, with the projected score Green Bay 28.2-23.1.

Pederson remembers coaching start before Super Bowl

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Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson hasn’t forgotten where his journey began: High school.

Following his playing career with the Dolphins, Packers, Browns and Eagles, Pederson bypassed professional coaching jobs. Instead, he joined Calvary Baptist Academy in Shreveport, L.A., and quickly added an NFL-caliber playbook to the second-year program.

Road to Super Bowl LII: Stream, start time, highlights and more

This is where he learned that he loved to coach the game. He embraced his role at the school, where he would help in the cafeteria and line the field before games. “I just enjoyed that part of it,” he says. Ten seasons later, he will coach on the biggest stage in the world.

Super Bowl LII Prop Bets

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Oddsmakers have Super Bowl LII covered from every angle, and that includes the halftime show. There is all manner of betting speculation around Justin Timberlake being the featured halftime show performer, 14 years after the infamous “Nipplegate” incident with Janet Jackson at Super Bowl XVIII.

With the game in Minneapolis, hometown of Prince, it seems obvious that JT will cover a song by the Twin Cities’ favorite son, which pays out at -140 on the Super Bowl LII props at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The total on Janet Jackson references is 1.5, with the over at even money; it’s hard to think Al Michaels could resist one mention.

The Philadelphia Eagles, with Nick Foles, are the first team in 27 years to reach the Super Bowl after losing their starting quarterback in December. It’s -150 on injured Carson Wentz being mentioned more than 3.5 times.

But oddsmakers also clearly expect the announcers to build a storyline around the New England Patriots, as it’s -130 for separate props on whether owner Robert Kraft or coach Bill Belichick will be mentioned or shown on-screen before their Eagles counterparts, Jeff Lurie and Doug Pederson respectively. Belichick is -125 to wear a blue shirt at kickoff time, since he wore that color during New England’s past two Super Bowl shows.

More than half of Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks and Tom Brady is a -110 favorite while Nick Foles comes back at +350. It would probably take something on order of a three-touchdown day to wrest the honor from the winning QB, so both the Patriots’ Dion Lewis (+1800) and Eagles’ Jay Ajayi (+1800) are worthy darkhorse picks.

History is not on the side of Rob Gronkowski (+900) since a tight end has never been the game MVP, but Gronk does offer immense value at +400 to score the first Patriots touchdown.

It is +300 on any quarterback passing for 400 or more yards. The strength of the Eagles defense and the run-pass balance of Philadelphia’s offense makes that result look far-fetched.

There was no Gatorade bath for Belichick after Super Bowl LI, which the Patriots won in overtime, but he was doused with orange Gatorade after Super Bowl XLIX in 2015. It is +225 that the liquid poured on the winning coach will be either green, lime or yellow, with +250 for orange, +275 for red and +275 for clear/water.

Clear and orange have been the result four times apiece in the last 15 occurrences and red has not come up. Purple (+1000) has also been used four of the last 15 times and it would be ironic if it happens again, since that is the color of the host Vikings.

For more odds info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.