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Yankees and Mets all square on odds going into Subway Series

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The New York Mets and New York Yankees, each of whom can stand to get a sweep to sustain their Wild Card hopes, meet this week in their annual Subway Series. Each team is listed at -110 on the moneyline at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com for Monday’s opener.

The Mets come into the four-game split series – Monday and Tuesday at Citi Field, then a move to the Bronx for Wednesday and Thursday – with slightly more forward momentum than the Yankees, although that says little.

The Mets are just 7-9 since the All-Star Break, but they weren’t sellers at the non-waiver trade deadline like the Yankees, who off-loaded two-thirds of the front of their bullpen by trading Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs and flipping Andrew Miller to the Cleveland Indians for prospects.

The Yankees, who will not face Mets ace Noah Syndergaard this week, have won 11 of the teams’ last 20 matchups according to the OddsShark MLB Database. The total has gone over nine times.

The Mets have fifth starter Logan Verrett against veteran Yankees LHP CC Sabathia in the pitching matchup for Monday. Verrett has been in his element in his home ballpark, with a 3.29 ERA at Citi compared to an ugly 5.00 on the road. The Mets are 2-3 in Verrett’s home starts, but two of the losses came against aces Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright.

Sabathia’s teams are 5-5 in his last 10 road starts in August. The Mets are 13-13 against lefty starters.

All-star right-hander Jacob deGrom, who works for the Mets on Tuesday, has limited hitters to a .589 OPS (on-base-plus-slugging) in his 10 home starts. However, Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka has been an excellent road starter, with a 1.94 ERA and a .566 OPS allowed. Tanaka has a 1.20 ERA in two career starts against the Mets.

The Mets are slated to start LHP Steven Matz at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. The Mets are 3-7 in Matz’s last 10 starts, and the total has gone under eight times. However, the Yankees are 14-19 against lefty starters.

Inconsistent Ivan Nova is scheduled to start for the Yankees. Nova has pitched one-run ball in three of his last five starts, but he has allowed nine home runs and issued 16 bases on balls in 52.2 innings at the Stadium this season. That combination can be lethal for a pitcher.

In the finale on Thursday, the Mets’ ageless RHP Bartolo Colon will return to one of his former home parks. One pattern of note with Colon is that the total has gone over in nine of his last 10 road starts in August. His teams are 5-5 in those matchups.

The Yankees’ Nathan Eovaldi has had a run of three decent starts since going back in the rotation, but his ratio of just 11 strikeouts against six walks over his last 18 innings is not a good omen.

Interleague play has been relatively kind to the Mets. They are 6-4; the Yankees are 5-8.

Dodgers, Indians are World Series favorites in MLB postseason

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Last October was a rare instance where the team with the best record in baseball won the World Series, which is something to keep in mind before laying the favorite.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the +300 favorite on the World Series odds as the MLB playoffs begin Tuesday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Cleveland Indians (+350) are a close second favorite.

From there, the board spreads out to the teams with Division Series home-field advantage, the Houston Astros (+500) and Washington Nationals (+700), followed by the Boston Red Sox (+800) and defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs (+800).

Wild-card teams have won six of the last 22 World Series, while the top regular-season team has triumphed in only seven of the last 31. So there is potential to cash in early on the value of a wild-card team. The New York Yankees (+1400) stack up well against the Minnesota Twins (+2800) in the wild-card game. However, Aaron Judge, et al., fared poorly in their season series against both Cleveland and Houston.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+1400), conversely, won the season series against the NL West rival Dodgers and might have the starting pitching and slugging prowess to take them out in a best-of-five NLDS. The Diamondbacks have to first get by the Colorado Rockies (+2800).

While MLB has not had a team repeat as World Series champions since 2000, teams that make a World Series seem more apt to do it again, regardless of what happened in the regular season (see the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012 and 2014). The Cubs, who have had their act together since the all-star break, are well-priced at 8/1.

It could well be that this is the year the Dodgers, five-time NL West champions, figure it out. But of the top seeds in each league, Cleveland played better in the second half and has lights-out pitching on the front end through the likes of Corey Kluber and on the back end with Cody Allen and lefty Andrew Miller in the bullpen.

As far as the wild-card matchups go, the Yankees (-235) are heavily favored against the Twins (+200), with a 7.5-run total in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game Yankees RHP Luis Severino is MLB’s hardest-throwing starter this season and the Twins are not a team of fastball hitters. Severino has limited batters to a .207/.265/.362 slash line (batting average, on-base and slugging percentage) this season at Yankee Stadium.

Twins RHP Ervin Santana also has a lifetime 6.43 earned run average in six games at Yankee Stadium, while allowing a .310/.379/.486 slash line.

The Yankees, with the likes of RHP Dellin Betances and LHP Aroldis Chapman, possess a deeper bullpen than the Twins. The total has gone under in five of Twins’ last seven road games against the Yankees.

The Diamondbacks (-166) are favored against the Rockies (+156) with an 8.5-run total in Wednesday’s NL wild-card game. Arizona is likely to start ace RHP Zack Greinke, who held the Rockies to a .229/.241/.435 slash line in five starts this season.

The Rockies’ presumptive starter, Jon Gray, is MLB’s second-hardest throwing starter. That could end up being in Arizona’s wheelhouse since power threats such as 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 3B Mike Lamb and RF J.D. Martinez make them one of baseball’s best teams at hitting against high velocity. If Arizona has a fatal flaw, it’s that closer Fernando Rodney has been human at home this season.

Arizona is 7-2 straight-up in its last nine games against the Rockies. The total has gone under in four of these teams’ last six games at Chase Field.

MLB 2017 betting props roundup: Home run leader, Cy Young Award odds

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Some long-term trends, one individual and one historical, work against the favorites in two of the big Major League Baseball season props.

Miami Marlins rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton is established as the +750 favorite on the MLB home run leader odds for 2017 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. And on the Cy Young Award winner odds, Chris Sale of the Boston Red Sox is the +200 favorite on the American League board while a fellow left-hander, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, is the +100 favorite on the National League board.

Stanton’s slugging prowess speaks for itself, but staying in the lineup has been an issue for him. The Marlins star has reached 500 at-bats only once in the past five seasons, so it is buyer beware when it comes to betting on Stanton to stay healthy enough to mash 40-some big flies.

The Colorado Rockies’ Nolan Arenado (+1250) is coming off consecutive 40-homer years in the high altitude of Denver. Reigning champ Mark Trumbo (+2000) is not the first Baltimore Orioles slugger you will find on the board, with corner infielders Chris Davis (+1500) and Manny Machado (+1500) each higher. Machado is entering his age-25 season and is nearing his peak years as a power hitter. He has already had two 35-homer seasons.

One player who might fill a need for deep value is Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier (+5000), who hit 42 homers last season.

On the AL Cy Young odds board, the aforementioned Sale (+200) had some regression late last season that should give bettors pause. As well, no Red Sox left-hander has ever won the award, which might be a reason to strike David Price (+550). It’s doubtful that their teammate Rick Porcello (+3300) will win again after his controversial victory against the Detroit Tigers’ Justin Verlander (+1000), who received more first-place votes.

The recent pattern with the AL Cy Young winners has been that it goes to a young star. That might make it worthwhile to throw a dart at the board with the Toronto Blue Jays’ Aaron Sanchez (+2000) or Cleveland Indians’ Danny Salazar (+4000).

The NL Cy Young odds board is top-heavy, with Kershaw (+100) joined by the reigning honoree, the Washington Nationals’ Max Scherzer (+300) and the New York Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (+800). Kershaw’s odds may offer too small a payout to back him when he’s coming off a year when he made only 22 starts due to a back injury.

Scherzer has been indomitable for four seasons and his odds make him worth being a safe pick. But Syndergaard winning a Cy Young might just be a matter of when.

Farther down the board, the Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks (+3300) is probably the pitcher to back from the defending World Series champions. Rotation mate Jake Arrieta (+1200) had some regression in 2016 after his 2015 Cy Young season, and voters sometimes tend to turn to a more recently established star.