Betting favorite Dustin Johnson seeks second major at PGA Championship

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Recent history at the PGA Championship might suggest the winner of the season’s final major will be someone who’s young-ish, has a win this season and is playing well of late.

Dustin Johnson, the U.S. Open champion, is the favorite at +800 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com heading into the showdown at Baltusrol Golf Club, followed by the two most recent winners, Jason Day (2015) and Rory McIlroy (2012 and 2014), who are listed at +900.

No one has ever gone 10 under par or lower in a major at Baltusrol, which is long for a par-70 layout at 7,462 yards. The last time the PGA Championship was played there in 2005, Phil Mickelson won with a 4-under 276.

Over the last 10 years, nine PGA Championship winners had won a tournament earlier in the season. Nine also had a top-10 finish in at least one of their previous two starts. Seven of the 10 had a previous top-10 finish at the PGA Championship. Seven of the last 10 winners had also posted a top-10 score in at least one of that season’s first three majors.

Five of the 10 were golfers who were in their twenties. The last champion who was over 40 years was Vijay Singh, 41, in 2004. That does not mean, of course, that whoever hoists the Wanamaker Trophy will check off all of those boxes, especially given the current run of first-time major winners.

Johnson has finished fifth or higher in five of his last six events. McIlroy, whose only win this season is the Irish Open, has had an up-and-down year, but his strength off the tee gives him a fighting chance. Day has the status of being the world No. 1 and the defending champion after his 20-under 268 at Whistling Straits, but he has finished outside of the top 10 in his last two events.

Jordan Spieth’s recent slip has led to him receiving +1400 odds. Spieth was runner-up to Day at the 2015 PGA Championship, but it was his first time making the cut in the event. The 23-year-old has three wins this season, but believers in recency might put more stock on Spieth having finished 37th and 30th at the past two majors.

Henrik Stenson, the British Open champion, is also listed at +1400. Based on the profile of past winners, Stenson being 40 years old might count against him.

Farther down the board, Brandt Snedeker (+4900) is coming off a fifth-place finish at the RBC Canadian Open, and has a 2016 tournament win to his name. Hideki Matsuyama, the 24-year-old from Japan who finished seventh this spring at the Masters and The Players Championship, is listed at +6600 on the golf betting lines due to a recent slump.

At Baltusrol, there’s always a capacity for one of the bigger hitters to muscle his way into the mix in the final round. Two of the Tour’s leaders in driving distance, J.B. Holmes (+6400) and sleeper pick Tony Finau (+10000) are each available at a good price. Holmes has finished in the top five twice in majors this year, but he has never finished in the top 20 at the PGA.

The 26-year-old Finau was 10th in the tournament last season, and has finished in the top 20 in each of his first four majors.

Jordan Spieth silences his doubters at The Open – including himself

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SOUTHPORT, England – It wasn’t Jean van de Velde standing in the burn at Carnoustie, but it was no less outrageous – Jordan Spieth perched atop a dune glaring into a cold rain.

This is where major championships go to die.

Although Spieth was trying as best he could to see a line to the 13th green, and minimize the damage of a drive that ended up closer to the practice tee than it did the fairway, he may as well have been watching the claret jug slipping away into the gloom.

Van de Velde went on to lose that 2006 Open in spectacular fashion, whereas Spieth’s finish was even more remarkable and completed a wire-to-wire victory that was far more eventful than anyone could have imagined just 24 hours earlier.

“Give me a round number,” Spieth shouted to his caddie Michael Greller from atop the hill adjacent to the 13th fairway. Two holes later, he was once again barking at his trusty bagman, “Go get that,” he defiantly yelled after his 70-footer for eagle trundled into the hole, the emotional extremes telling you everything you needed to know about the 146th Open.

History will recount that it was that eagle, or maybe the birdie putt at the 16th hole or the tee shot that never left the flag at No. 14 for a bounce-back birdie, that won Spieth his third major; but that ignores the unsightly significance of his bogey on the 13th hole.

In his prime, Stewart Cink once described Tiger Woods’ Sunday style with a lead as a prevent defense, a give-them-nothing-but-take-everything sort of deal.

Outwardly, Spieth may not have the same 1,000-yard stare, but the internal burn to chip away at the competition is no less intense. It was the plan when he began the final day at Royal Birkdale – kill ’em with pars.

But this wasn’t like that, at all. This was more heavy lifting than a heavyweight bout, with a gritty texture befitting this Liverpool suburb.

That fairways-and-greens blueprint didn’t survive the first hole, which Spieth bogeyed. He chopped up the third and the fourth to drop into a tie for the lead with Matt Kuchar, and when he added another at the ninth – he’d penciled in just four bogeys total through his first 54 holes – the free-fall was in full flight.

Things move at 100 rpms on a Sunday with a major title onthe  line, and when Spieth’s drive sailed some 100 yards right of the short stuff at No. 13 the wheels were visibly spinning.

Over the course of 20 surreal minutes Spieth consulted with one rules official, then another. He herded the massive crowds this way and that, and paced around like a madman before finally coaxing a 3-iron short of the green and getting up and down for an all-world bogey.

“From there he did what he’s always done, he just grinds,” Greller said.

This wasn’t the 2016 Masters, when he squandered a five-stroke lead with nine holes to play, or even the ’15 Open when he finished a shot outside a playoff following a bogey at the 71st hole. This was much-needed proof, to himself if not the entire world, that he could be the closer he’s always aspired to be.

Spieth joked that he would have gladly traded his lively day for a more mundane, 17 pars and a birdie 69, but then that wouldn’t have had the same significance. Spieth needed this victory, warts and all.

Always an active mind, the doubts arrived early on Sunday for Spieth. He’d just blown a three-stroke lead before the turn and the internal dialogue was hard and harsh.

“I thought before the round, I thought I have a reputation as being able to close, but I was hesitant in saying ‘majors,’ to myself,” Spieth conceded. “During the round today I definitely thought any kind of fear or advantage that you can have in this moment over other individuals, not just Matt Kuchar today, but other people that are watching – that’s being taken away by the way that I’m playing right now.”

Spieth, who turns 24 on Thursday, now has the chance to become the youngest player to complete the career Grand Slam at next month’s PGA Championship, the kind of lofty accomplishment that’s not lost on one of the game’s most astute students. But on Sunday as the rain pelted Royal Birkdale and his gaze drifted toward the claret jug, that wasn’t the history he was interested in.

He’d said on numerous occasions that he’d moved on since that ’16 collapse at Augusta National, but players say a lot of things. It’s a competitive firewall to keep talents like Spieth from venturing too far down the rabbit hole.

With apologies to the sports psychologists of the world, there’s no room in golf for self-examination when your next round could just as easily be a breakthrough or breakdown, depending on the outcome.

But then Spieth isn’t your normal champion and as things started to unravel early on Day 4 the déjà vu must have been deafening.

“He’s heard a lot since that ’16 Masters and I’m sure somewhere in there some doubts crept in, but he just said I know how to do this,” Greller said.

Most players wouldn’t admit to such doubts, but then Spieth isn’t most players. On Sunday, he conceded he was uncomfortable to start the round and only slightly less uncomfortable after scrambling for bogey at the 13th hole. More so than the elements or a demanding links, it was those emotions and how he dealt with them that was so rewarding. It may have been Kuchar who he beat by three strokes, but it was the scorecard against an assortment of doubts and demons that will resonate long after he leaves England.

“Closing today was extremely important for the way I look at myself,” Spieth said.

On a wild day along the Irish Sea, Spieth proved to everyone, including himself, that he’s a fighter, a closer, a champion.

Jordan Spieth one PGA away from winning career Grand Slam

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If Spieth wins, he’ll become the youngest player to ever capture the slam. Tiger Woods was 24 when he did it at the 2000 Open.

It’s a wonderful opportunity for Spieth, but one that also comes with a heavy burden.

“It’s good and bad, because a lot comes with it. And a lot more attention,” he said. “I wanted to be in this position but then, you know, here and there, it becomes harder when it doesn’t go your way. And you’re harder on yourself because you expect so much.”

Spieth joins Rory McIlroy (Masters) and Phil Mickelson (U.S. Open) as the only active players with three legs of the slam.

While the pressure will mount in the coming weeks, and even more the longer it takes for him to win the PGA, Spieth isn’t going to worry about it at the moment.

“I’m going to thoroughly enjoy this. I look back on ’15 and thought, yeah, I enjoyed it, but I never realized the significance until you kind of hit a low, hit a pitfall, to appreciate the high so much,” he said. “And this is as much of a high as I’ve ever experienced in my golfing life.”