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Packers, Patriots and Seahawks Preseason Chalk on NFL Playoff Odds

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Having a good feeling about a potential Super Bowl team before NFL training camps begin can bring a rush of anticipation, but there’s also the percentage play of betting on whether particular teams will make the playoffs.

Not surprisingly for teams quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are each listed at -500 to qualify for the postseason at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Patriots have a favorable early-season schedule that should allow them to do no worse than 2-2 while Jimmy Garoppolo is starting during Brady’s Deflategate suspension. The Patriots have -350 odds for not making the playoffs; they haven’t missed since 2008, when Brady suffered a serious knee injury in Week 1.

Eight of the 12 playoff teams last season also qualified in 2014. Seven teams that qualified in 2014 also did so in 2013.

The defending champion Denver Broncos, with upheaval at both quarterback and on defense, are -150 to qualify again, but slightly better than even money to miss the playoffs at +110 on those NFL betting lines. While Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers surely won’t repeat their 15-1 record from 2015, they would need a serious nosedive to be done in December. The Panthers’ playoff odds are -140.

The Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, who are both defending division champions, are each listed at -200. Each team is respectively well-quarterbacked with Carson Palmer and Teddy Bridgewater and well-stocked defensively, making a wild-card spot a fallback if the division slips away.

One way to simplify the process might be to narrow the focus down to divisions with a shaky defending champion. Based on off-season departures and arrivals, that would likely be the AFC South, the AFC West due to Denver’s turmoil, and the NFC East since it’s the NFC East.

In the AFC South, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts have -165 playoff odds, which seems derived mostly from the expectation Luck will stay healthy. The J.J. Luck-led Houston Texans are at -135 after upgrading offensively with QB Brock Osweiler and RB Lamar Miller. A bettor who is unsold on either could look at the +300 darkhorse Jacksonville Jaguars, who have improved on each side of the ball by adding LT Kelvin Beachum and CB Jalen Ramsey.

The Kansas City Chiefs, who reached the divisional round last season despite losing main cogs such as RB Jamaal Charles, are listed at -150. The Oakland Raiders have a 13-season playoff drought, but are at +110 due to expectations that QB Derek Carr and WR Amari Cooper will be difference-makers for a young team.

The Washington Redskins, at +160, have the highest potential payout of any playoff incumbent. Washington retained QB Kirk Cousins without blowing its salary-cup structure. However, the NFC East changes hands on an almost annual basis. The Dallas Cowboys have the best playoff odds in the East at -140, with the New York Giants at even and the Philadelphia Eagles at +215.

Patriots looking to break slump for betting favorites at Super Bowl LI

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With their vast collective edge in Super Bowl experience, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are favored against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, although that’s not always a harbinger of success.

The Patriots opened as the three-point favorite against the Falcons with a 58.5-point total in the Super Bowl LI matchup, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The NFL’s championship game will be played on February 5 at NRG Stadium in Houston, with Brady trying to become the first quarterback with five Super Bowl victories while the Falcons will try to win their first championship.

The favored team is 0-5 straight-up and against the spread in the last five Super Bowl matchups, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The Patriots are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games in the Super Bowl, although three of those matchups saw them raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The other general trend is that the designated away team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 years, and New England will be considered the away team, just as it was when it defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX two seasons ago.

The Falcons, who are 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS, have lost and failed to cover the spread in their last four games against the Patriots. The Falcons are also 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against the AFC. A team’s more recent body of work can have more bearing than a sample stretching beyond a decade, though, and with Ryan as the triggerman in their well-balanced offense the Falcons are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

They are also 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning records.

The Patriots are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS on the season, including a current 7-0 ATS run. New England’s ability to peak at the right time is not overestimated either, as they are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over the last three postseasons. They are also 6-1 SU in their last seven playoff games as a favorite, with the loss coming last season in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Denver Broncos, who had a historically dominant defense.

The Patriots are 13-4 SU against the NFC over the last four seasons. The opposing quarterbacks of record for the losses were Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Bradford and Cam Newton.

The total has gone OVER in the Falcons’ last eight games. The total has gone OVER in six of the Patriots’ last seven games against teams with winning records. The total has gone UNDER in three of the Patriots’ last four games in the Super Bowl.

New title for Patriots quarterback Tom Brady: Best beer chugger?

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There’s been a lot of talk about Tom Brady’s diet and pajamas, but Brady’s ability to drink?

This is a new one.

Former Patriot Ross Tucker said on The Dan Patrick Show Monday that a young Tom Brady was the best beer chugger he’s ever seen.

“He’s the best I’ve ever seen. And I was in a fraternity,” Tucker said. “It sounds funny when you say it, but the guy has every positive male quality known to man, like I was almost mad that he was that good of a chugger. Because I was sitting there thinking, ‘This is just not fair.’ Why is God not spreading the wealth a little more?”

There’s a pretty good chance that his current diet doesn’t permit drinking, but for argument’s sake: What type of beer would Brady drink?

The New England quarterback doesn’t strike me as a craft beer drinker, but maybe he picked up an affinity for Bell’s while at Michigan or adopted Harpoon while living in New England. Who knows, he’s could be a cheap beer fanatic and enjoy a good PBR.