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Euro 2016 final: Griezmann, France favored to beat Ronaldo, Portugal

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While it often pays to be counter-intuitive before a championship matchup that has a heavy favorite, France is the chalk pick for the Euro 2016 final at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com for a reason.

France, which has pumped in nine goals in their last three matches, are listed at +110 to defeat Portugal on Sunday at Stade de France in Saint-Denis and become a three-time European champion. Portugal, led  by Real Madrid superstar Cristiano Ronaldo but also bearing the baggage from having been a bridesmaid four times in major tournaments since 2000, is the longshot at +350. The draw is at +210.

Many observers labeled the France-Germany semifinal, which Les Bleus won 2-0, to be the real final. France has been lethal at finishing during the knockout stages, with Atletico Madrid star Antoine Griezmann now up to a tournament-leading six goals. Their win against Germany illustrated how they can still get on the scoreboard without being ahead in possession time.

Skeptics who are still fixated on the fact France’s opening goal of the semifinal came on a penalty kick would also do well to remember they probably would have broken through sooner if they were facing any goalkeeper other than Germany’s Manuel Neuer.

France manager Didier Deschamps has a healthy lineup. France has also won 10 consecutive matchups against Portugal since 1975. It is also notable that the goal total has been two or more in 12 of the 14 Euro finals.

The best-case scenario for Portugal and Ronaldo might involve poking in an early goal and winning ugly through tough-minded marking. It’s decided role reversal from the days when Portugal often fell victim to that style of play, most notably at Euro 2004 when Greece pulled off a 1-0 upset in the final.

Portugal seems to have made the attitude adjustment required to win with defense. Left back Raphael Guerreiro should return to bolster their back line after being held out of the semifinal against Wales on Wednesday. The effect of his return could be negated if Pepe, who trained apart from his teammates on Friday, is less than 100% healthy.

It might be tempting to think that Portugal might act out the underdog story. However, the cost of their emphasis on falling back defensively is that it reduces the number of touches for Ronaldo and Nani, their second striker

In a Euro 2016 matchup featuring La Liga rivals Ronaldo and Griezmann, it might be best to back the superstar whose team keeps him engaged in the game.

Juventus underdog against Real Madrid in Champions League Final

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While being champions of Europe in back-to-back years would be unprecedented in modern times, Real Madrid and Cristiano Ronaldo will face the toughest backline they have seen all season against Juventus.

Real Madrid is listed a -120 betting favorite against +100 Juventus with a 2.0 total in their Champions League final matchup for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. On the three-way moneyline for Saturday’s match in Cardiff, Wales, Real Madrid is offering +155 to Juventus’ +183 with the draw going off at +101, indicating that most sharps see this being a tight match. Six of the last 16 Champions League finals have required extra time.

Juventus, under Massimiliano Allegri, has been a well-oiled machine throughout the competition with only three goals allowed in 12 matches. The Italian squad, which just won a sixth consecutive league title in Serie A, will likely try to contain Ronaldo with a back four that includes the excellent centre-back combo of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chellini.

Juventus should get a boost at midfield now that Sami Khedira is healthy and can pair with Miralem Pjanic as a passer.

Forward Gonzalo Higuain (+900), who is due to deliver in a final and will be facing his former club, has the highest odds of any Juve player to score two or more goals on the Champions League final betting props. Dybala (+1200) offers a better price, though.

Real Madrid comes in with more a pedigree, having won the Champions League in two of the past three years. With Gareth Bale (ankle) admitting he’s not ready to start, Real manager Zinedine Zidane might have to turn to attacking midfielder Isco to complement Ronaldo up front. Real Madrid’s likelihood of controlling the pace likely hinges on its midfield, where Luka Modric has been excellent during their run.

Ronaldo (+550), not surprisingly, has top odds to score at least two goals. Alvaro Morata (+900) is high on the board, although how much of a factor he’ll be with an off-season transfer upcoming is anyone’s guess.

Real Madrid is listed at +300 to score a goal in each half, with Juventus listed at +350. It’s in Real Madrid’s interest to push for an early tally, lest Juventus be able to settle into a defensive shell.

On the first goal scorer board, Ronaldo (+350) and Higuain (+400) are the usual suspects. Real midfielder Toni Kroos (+2000) has also had a hot boot of late, with two goals in his last three La Liga starts.

There is a -115 yes/no prop on whether both teams will score in the game. Only two of the last 12 finals have ended with a shutout.

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Betting: Second Leg Odds and Analysis

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Lopsided semifinal first legs might make a Champions League final between Juventus and Real Madrid seem inevitable, but there is ample betting fodder within that reality.

Both  carry big leads into the semifinal second leg this week. Reigning champion Real Madrid is now a -125 favorite on the Champions League futures board, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Juventus is listed at even money, while their respective opponents, Atletico Madrid and AS Monaco, are each darkhorses at +400.

Juventus, which leads 2-0, is a -165 favorite against AS Monaco (+450) with a 2.5 total for their match on Tuesday in Italy. The draw on the three-way moneyline is listed at +295. Juventus, which can lose the match by one goal and still advance, will likely try to pack it in around its goal, something its done well in European play (two goals allowed in 11 matches).

Juventus also comes in healthy and relatively rested, having rotated their lineup during a league match against Torino last Saturday.

Monaco should have everyone fresh, including teen phenom Kylian Mbappe, but the odds of pushing two away goals past Juventus would seem to be remote. The draw seems like a cagey play.

With the former carrying over a 3-0 lead from the first leg, Real Madrid (+155) and host Atletico Madrid (+160) are in a toss-up game with a 2.5 total in their betting matchup on Wednesday. The draw pays +245 on the three-way moneyline.

Real, led on the pitch by Cristiano Ronaldo, has not been shut out in more than a year. Scoring an away goal would all but seal the win on aggregate (road goals are the first tiebreaker). Atletico, which needs to win by at least three goals, has also had a collective struggle with creating opportunities that forwards Kévin Gamiero and Antoine Grieznmann can put away.

This could be a good match for in-game bettors to track, since Real knows an early goal would force Atletico into a desperate style of game to which it is unaccustomed.

The Champions League final – which is a one-game showdown – will take place at Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales, on June 3.