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Hunt’s Odds Against Lesnar Drop Ahead of UFC 200 Main Event

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With Jon Jones booted from UFC 200 over a potential doping violation, Brock Lesnar’s comeback fight against Mark Hunt has become the main event on the card that is set for Las Vegas on Saturday.

Lesnar’s star power and return to the Octagon for his first match since 2011 offers a lot for the curiosity seeker, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out for bettors. Hunt is now a -175 betting favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com after opening at -136.

While Hunt is the world’s No. 8-ranked heavyweight, his style falls in the range of the type of striker whom Lesnar often struggled against before leaving UFC to go back to wrestling for almost five years.

Lesnar’s odds have risen to +145 from +121. One read into that could be that oddsmakers are trying to ply bettors to make the higher-paying play, but at the same time Lesnar’s athleticism makes him a hard-to-resist underdog. Hunt will need to prove that he has upgraded his ground game from absolute liability to passable.

Whether Dana White makes good on his vow to find a suitable opponent to take Jones’ spot against Daniel Cormier, the card is still deep.

The odds for featured featherweights Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar’s hotly anticipated UFC 200 rematch, which is for the UFC’s interim 145-pound belt, have flip-flopped all week. Edgar, who has won his last five fights, is the slight -120 favorite. Aldo, who won in the rivals’ first matchup, is listed at -110.

While Aldo is maintaining that Edgar hasn’t changed since that 2013 fight, Edgar’s recent body of work shows that he has made great strides as a striker.

Women’s bantamweight champion Miesha Tate is a big -260 betting favorite at the sportsbooks against challenger Amanda Nunes, who is a +200 underdog. Tate is a grinder with a strong track record of frustrating and fatiguing opponents, which should mean that Nunes’ chances of a technical knockout should be far and few between.

Cain Velasquez will be at a six-inch height disadvantage against Travis Browne in their heavyweight match. Velasquez is the -305 favorite, since he has proven himself to be as indefatigable as a 245-pound heavyweight can get in UFC.

Browne is listed at +245. At 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, Browne is a potent striker. Of course, he needs to be on his feet to do that and Velasquez uses his wrestling skills to deny opponents that luxury.

Miocic the betting favorite against dos Santos on the UFC 211 odds

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Stipe Miocic lost his previous fight against Junior dos Santos, which gives him a point to prove in the co-main event at UFC 211 on Saturday.

Miocic is listed as the -140 favorite against dos Santos, the +110 underdog, in their UFC heavyweight betting matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The title fight will cap off the card at American Airlines Center in Dallas.

The two went the distance in December 2014, but bettors should keep in mind that dos Santos needed nearly-perfect takedown defense to get the win by decision. Miocic will be conceding some quickness, but his well-honed grappling and ground-and-pound technique give him an excellent chance of avenging that defeat.

Miocic, being the champion instead of the challenger, might also have the psychological edge as the champion; he can pick his spots and avoid the inherent risk of a slugfest with an excellent technical fighter.

In the co-main event, reigning women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a -185 favorite on the UFC 211 betting lines against Jessica Andrade (+150). There’s a distinct possibility of this being a mostly stand-up fight, which would work in favor of Jedrzejczyk, who is taller and has the reach advantage against Andrade.

Jedrzejczyk’s penchant for pace and volume also means she’ll get tougher as a fight progresses. If Andrade is to win, it will likely have to be through a quick submission.

Jorge Masdival (-130) is a slight favorite against Demian Maia (even money) in a welterweight bout. Masdival is a superb striker and his recent TKO victories against Donald Cerrone and Jake Ellenberger put those skills on full display. However, Maia, with his aptitude for Brazilian jiu-jitsu, can take that away from an opponent, as he’s won six matches in a row. The ageless Brazilian has enough in the tank to go five rounds.

Frankie Edgar (-140) is favored against Yair Rodriguez (+110) in a featherweight match. The lines might reflect the boundless respect that Edgar commands among fight aficionados, but both the height (five inches to Rodriguez) and age (Rodriguez is 11 years younger) differences might be daunting for Edgar. Rodriguez’s reach advantage might negate the edge Edgar has in boxing and wrestling. Rodriguez is on an eight-match win streak, with four of his last six wins having come by decision.

Krzystof Jotko (-160) is the favorite against David Branch (+130) in a middleweight tilt that was bumped up due to a withdrawal. Jotko is 6-1 in the UFC. While his only loss was by submission, his most recent win against Thale Leites saw him display excellent sufficient defense, which might be a good omen in a matchup against a grappler such as Branch.

Underdogs have won in 40 of 84 fights, or 49 per cent, so far this year in the UFC.

 

UFC 2010 odds: Cormier slight underdog vs. Johnson on betting lines

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The notion that a knockout artist is generally more appealing than a wrestler in the UFC might play into the shifting odds for the co-main event for UFC 210.

Although he lost in their first light heavyweight title bout, Anthony (Rumble) Johnson has shifted to being the -125 favorite against -105 slight underdog Daniel Cormier, the reigning champion, at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Their rematch will cap off the card  at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York on Saturday.

Cormier opened as a -120 favorite with Johnson at -110, but the latter, as one of the hardest hitters in the Octagon, constitutes the classic irresistible force. Johnson only needs one great shot to decide a fight and the law of averages would dictate that the more he sees of Cormier, the better his chance to land it.

That said, Cormier can get the fight to the mat and to the cage and force Johnson to expend a great amount of his energy getting free.

The co-main event is a veritable toss-up, with Gegard Mousasi listed at -120 on the UFC 210 betting lines against ex-middleweight champ Chris Weidman, who has a price of -110. The lines might be a bit reputation-based, but Mousasi has won four consecutive fights whereas Weidman has lost his last two. Mousasi also has a methodical approach that should serve to keep him out of trouble against Weidman, who in both of his losses fatigued when he wasn’t able to dominate early.

Welterweight Patrick Côté is a -160 favorite against +130 underdog Thiago Alves, who’s something of an enigma due to a 17-month layoff. Both prefer the standup game, but the match might turn on who uses his wrestling effectively, and that’s more likely to be the bigger Côté. Alves, at age 33, still has the speed to deliver devastating kicks.

Coming off a loss in his last bout, lightweight Will Brooks is a -240 favorite against +190 underdog Charles Oliveira. While Oliveira’s failures to make weight as a featherweight are well documented, Brooks has had the strength to go up a weight class to welterweight. The favorite should have a wrestling and strength advantage that will serve to negate the aggression of Oliviera, who is a good striker.

Women’s strawweight grappler Cynthia Calvillo is a -270 favorite against +210 underdog Pearl Gonzalez, who is making her UFC debut. Calvillo, who also won at UFC 209, is a rising prospect who has finished three of her four opponents by submission since turning pro. The 30-year-old Gonzalez’s best qualities are her wrestling and submission game. With Calvillo’s relative inexperience, this bout has upset potential.

Through the first three months of the year, there were 27 underdog victories in 87 UFC bouts, or 31 percent, according to OddsShark.com. Underdogs won at a 36.8 percent rate in 2016 and 38.5 percent in 2017, so one should expect the current rate to rise over the course of the year.