Offseason Moves Boost Bolts, Preds on 2017 Stanley Cup Odds

Leave a comment

The fates of stars Steven Stamkos and P.K. Subban have effected change to the pecking order on the 2017 Stanley Cup futures board at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

While the Pittsburgh Penguins captured the silver chalice in June, the runner-up San Jose Sharks might have provided a lasting illustration during the playoffs. In an era with a hard salary cap and historically low scoring rates, any solid playoff team with a strong nucleus is bound to make a run at the Stanley Cup if it earns enough chances.

Thus it is not surprising to see the Stanley Cup odds on the Nashville Predators, who made a blockbuster trade with the Montreal Canadiens last week to get Subban, drop to +1400, from +1800.

Likewise, thanks to GM Steve Yzerman re-signing former 60-goal scorer Steven Stamkos as soon as free agency began on July 1, the Tampa Bay Lightning are at +1000 after opening at +1400. The Lightning are the only team which has reached their conference final in two consecutive seasons.

Although the NHL had not had a repeat champion since the 1997 and 1998 Detroit Red Wings, the Pittsburgh Penguins maintain top odds at +900. With Sidney Crosby, Nick Bonino and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh is as deep as any NHL team at center, and it could gain some roster flexibility by moving on from high-paid veteran G Marc-Andre Fleury.

The Chicago Blackhawks remain second favorite, albeit at +950. Salary-cap restrictions are not going to allow Chicago to add major pieces to complement league MVP Patrick Kane and two-way center Jonathan Toews, but they are nonetheless the organization that has won three of the last seven Cups.

Led by Alexander Ovechkin, the Washington Capitals have superior three-line scoring punch, especially after adding center Lars Eller via a trade with the Canadiens. That somewhat underrated addition could help Washington, which is listed at +1000, become more geared for the playoffs after years of being unable to get by Metropolitan Division rival Pittsburgh.

Getting out of the Central Division quadrant of the playoffs will almost be an accomplishment on its own this season. Along with the Blackhawks, the St. Louis Blues are listed at +1200 and the Dallas Stars are level with Nashville at +1400.

Speaking of the Sharks, their +1400 odds is the lowest among Pacific Division teams, with their state rivals, the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings, each listed at +1600. Sharks GM Doug Wilson has quietly reloaded early this summer with the value signings of fleet-footed winger Mikkel Boedker and defenseman David Schlemko, who each have experience playing for San Jose coach Peter DeBoer.

The NHL is celebrating its centennial in 2017, but it is highly doubtful it will involve a Canadian team winning the Cup for the first time since 1993. Both Montreal and the Edmonton Oilers are listed at +3300. Montreal received star defenseman Shea Weber in return for Subban and also added hard-nosed RW Andrew Shaw in a trade with Chicago. Edmonton has also added a tough guy with a Stanley Cup pedigree, picking up Milan Lucic, but traded away Taylor Hall.

Penguins heavy favorites against Senators for Thursday’s Game 7 matchup

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Betting against Sidney Crosby in a do-or-done game takes some guts, since the Pittsburgh Penguins’ history shows they find a way when their backs are against the wall.

With a spot in the Stanley Cup final at stake, the Penguins are a -200 moneyline favorite against the +170 underdog Ottawa Senators with a five-goal total for Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The winner moves on to the Stanley Cup final against the Nashville Predators.

This season, Pittsburgh is 14-1 in 15 games when it was a favorite of -200 to -500 on the moneyline, according to the OddsShark NHL Database. They are also 14-3 in their last 17 home games against Ottawa, but one big reason this series has required Game 7 is that the Penguins are 1-7 on the puckline in their last eight games against the Senators.

It’s no secret that Ottawa, which is 27-21-2 on the road this season and 35-28-5 as the underdog, will rely on goalie Craig Anderson (45 saves in Game 6) and their execution of a 1-3-1 neutral zone trap. The Senators have a strong defense with Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci, who have helped Ottawa stay in most games..

Ottawa will try to be opportunistic and hope that the likes of RW Bobby Ryan or C Kyle Turris can produce timely goals. Ottawa has been a moneyline underdog of +150 or more nine times since the NHL all-star break. They are 4-5 in those matchups.

Pittsburgh is 37-7-6 at home this season, as well as 51-17-11 as a favorite. They are 2-0 in Game 7s under head coach Mike Sullivan (both on the road), and have outplayed Ottawa over each of the last three games.

The presence and talent of Crosby and C Evgeni Malkin might be the hole cards that give the Penguins the ability to offset several key injuries. Defenseman Justin Schultz (upper body), defenseman Chad Ruhwedel (upper body), RW Patrik Hornqvist (upper body) and RW Tom Kuhnhackl (lower body) could all miss the game on Thursday.

Penguins goalie Matt Murray has allowed only three even-strength goals in three games since taking over as the starter. The total has gone under in six of Ottawa’s last nine road games against Pittsburgh.

If Pittsburgh wins, it will be the first time the franchise has won Game 7 of a series at home after losing Game 6 on the road. Ottawa is also out to buck a historical trend as it is 0-5 all-time in Game 7s, home and away. The last was in 2012.

NHL Conference Final Odds: Penguins, Predators Series Betting Favorites

Leave a comment

In the wake of their latest humbling of the Washington Capitals, Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins are seen by oddsmakers as capable of repeating as the Stanley Cup champions.

The Penguins are listed at +175 on the latest odds to win the Stanley Cup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Anaheim Ducks (+250) and Nashville Predators (+300), the opponents in the Western Conference final, are second and third on the board, while the Ottawa Senators (+450) draw in as the darkhorse.

No team has repeated as champions since the NHL’s salary-cap era began in 2005. Pittsburgh is also allowing 35.3 shots per game in the playoffs, which seems a tad high for a championship team. A club with speed and an agile, mobile defense corps – such as Nashville with Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and P.K. Subban – would match up well with the Penguins.

Nashville also hails from the Central Division, which has produced four of the NHL’s last nine champions.

Nashville (-125) is a slight favorite against Anaheim (+105) on the NHL series prices for the Western Conference final, which begins at Anaheim on Friday. Although the Predators are in their first conference final, they come in with one of the deepest lineups, with C Ryan Johansen and RW Viktor Arvidsson among the dangerous players on a team that does offense by committee.

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Nashville G Pekka Rinne has also been much more consistent than Anaheim’s 24-year-old John Gibson.

Anaheim, as long as Ryan Getzlaf isn’t neutralized, is a strong veteran team. They did have a draining seven-game series in the second round against the Edmonton Oilers where the attrition included losing depth forwards Patrick Eaves and Logan Shaw.

The fact that the total has gone over in six of the Ducks’ last nine games isn’t encouraging. The total has gone over in seven of Nashville’s last 10 road games against Anaheim, with two pushes. The Ducks are listed as small -115 home favorites for Game 1 on Friday.

In the Eastern Conference series price, Pittsburgh (-300) is a massive favorite against Ottawa (+250). The combo of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin (who is the +500 favorite on the Conn Smythe Trophy odds) and Matt Cullen, man-for-man, surpasses Ottawa’s top centers, Kyle Turris, Derick Brassard and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

Pittsburgh, which is 9-1 at home against Ottawa over the last five seasons according to the OddsShark NHL Database, will need a strong offense to cover up for its suspect defense.

It might be tempting to take Ottawa and its dynamic defenseman Erik Karlsson in the series just because their price is so inviting. Ottawa has stymied two opponents by forcing teams to get through their 1-3-1 trap before testing steady goalie Craig Anderson, but frustrating a team with as much playoff experience as Pittsburgh is a tall task.