Offseason Moves Boost Bolts, Preds on 2017 Stanley Cup Odds

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The fates of stars Steven Stamkos and P.K. Subban have effected change to the pecking order on the 2017 Stanley Cup futures board at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

While the Pittsburgh Penguins captured the silver chalice in June, the runner-up San Jose Sharks might have provided a lasting illustration during the playoffs. In an era with a hard salary cap and historically low scoring rates, any solid playoff team with a strong nucleus is bound to make a run at the Stanley Cup if it earns enough chances.

Thus it is not surprising to see the Stanley Cup odds on the Nashville Predators, who made a blockbuster trade with the Montreal Canadiens last week to get Subban, drop to +1400, from +1800.

Likewise, thanks to GM Steve Yzerman re-signing former 60-goal scorer Steven Stamkos as soon as free agency began on July 1, the Tampa Bay Lightning are at +1000 after opening at +1400. The Lightning are the only team which has reached their conference final in two consecutive seasons.

Although the NHL had not had a repeat champion since the 1997 and 1998 Detroit Red Wings, the Pittsburgh Penguins maintain top odds at +900. With Sidney Crosby, Nick Bonino and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh is as deep as any NHL team at center, and it could gain some roster flexibility by moving on from high-paid veteran G Marc-Andre Fleury.

The Chicago Blackhawks remain second favorite, albeit at +950. Salary-cap restrictions are not going to allow Chicago to add major pieces to complement league MVP Patrick Kane and two-way center Jonathan Toews, but they are nonetheless the organization that has won three of the last seven Cups.

Led by Alexander Ovechkin, the Washington Capitals have superior three-line scoring punch, especially after adding center Lars Eller via a trade with the Canadiens. That somewhat underrated addition could help Washington, which is listed at +1000, become more geared for the playoffs after years of being unable to get by Metropolitan Division rival Pittsburgh.

Getting out of the Central Division quadrant of the playoffs will almost be an accomplishment on its own this season. Along with the Blackhawks, the St. Louis Blues are listed at +1200 and the Dallas Stars are level with Nashville at +1400.

Speaking of the Sharks, their +1400 odds is the lowest among Pacific Division teams, with their state rivals, the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings, each listed at +1600. Sharks GM Doug Wilson has quietly reloaded early this summer with the value signings of fleet-footed winger Mikkel Boedker and defenseman David Schlemko, who each have experience playing for San Jose coach Peter DeBoer.

The NHL is celebrating its centennial in 2017, but it is highly doubtful it will involve a Canadian team winning the Cup for the first time since 1993. Both Montreal and the Edmonton Oilers are listed at +3300. Montreal received star defenseman Shea Weber in return for Subban and also added hard-nosed RW Andrew Shaw in a trade with Chicago. Edmonton has also added a tough guy with a Stanley Cup pedigree, picking up Milan Lucic, but traded away Taylor Hall.

Pittsburgh Penguins among road betting favorites in Wednesday NHL action

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One reason why the Pittsburgh Penguins of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have won the last two Stanley Cups is their killer instinct in the early stages.

With the NHL playoffs at the midpoint of the first round, the Penguins are a -140 moneyline favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com against the rival Philadelphia Flyers with a 6-goal total for Wednesday’s Game 4 matchup.

The OddsShark NHL Database shows that the Penguins are 8-4 in their last 12 road games during the playoffs in April. Pittsburgh, which is ahead 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, has also scored exactly five goals in four of their last five road games against the Flyers.

Philadelphia, which is just 4-8 in its last 12 home games as a moneyline underdog of +120 to +150, has issues with two of its key forwards. Captain Claude Giroux has zero goals and one assist in the series’ three games, while center Sean Couturier (undisclosed) was injured after colliding with a teammate in practice on Tuesday.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Penguins’ last 13 road games. The total has also gone over in six of the Penguins’ last eight games against the Flyers.

The Tampa Bay Lightning (-144) are favored against the New Jersey Devils (+130) for their Game 4 matchup on Wednesday. However, Tampa Bay is only 5-5 in its last 10 games as a road favorite and two core players, right wing Ryan Callahan (shoulder) and left wing Tyler Johnson (held out of practice Tuesday) are question marks. The Devils are 8-4 in their last 12 games. The total has gone over in five of the Devils’ last six games.

Bettors have to weigh recency against sample sizes with the Nashville Predators (-165), who are deep into minus money against the Colorado Avalanche (+149), even though Colorado won in Game 3 of the series on Monday.

Nashville has lost three of the last four games when it was a road favorite and has given up the first goal in each game of this series. However, the Predators are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road favorite. The Avalanche and center Nathan MacKinnon are 8-2 as a home underdog since Christmas. Each defeat was against Nashville, but only one of those 10 matchups was against a non-playoff team.

The total has gone over in eight of Nashville’s last 10 road games against fellow Central Division teams. The total has gone over in seven of Colorado’s last nine home games against Central teams.

And the San Jose Sharks (-169), the only home team which is favored on Wednesday, are trying to complete a sweep against the Anaheim Ducks (+152). The Sharks’ best defenseman, Brent Burns (undisclosed), has an injury situation to monitor, but they are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against Anaheim. The Ducks are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog on the road.

The total has also gone over in seven of Anaheim’s last 10 playoff games when it was an underdog on the road.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Capitals, Holtby heavy favorites hosting Rangers on Wednesday night

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Each team has its No. 1 goaltender due back from injury, but recent trends suggest that’s more likely to help the Washington Capitals than the New York Rangers.

The Metropolitan-leading Capitals are the -260 favorites on the NHL odds and the Rangers come back as +215 underdogs with a 6-goal total for their matchup on Wednesday night, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Late regular-season NHL games between Stanley Cup contenders such as the Capitals and also-rans such as the Rangers are prone to becoming moneyline mismatches. Washington, which is 9-1 in their last 10 home games as a moneyline favorite of -200 to -500, according to the OddsShark NHL Database, has only gone deeper into minus money on home ice four times in the last three seasons. The Rangers are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a moneyline underdog of +150 or higher.

The Rangers, whose 33-35-8 record includes a 12-20-4 road mark, are playing out the string and evaluating younger players, such as Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil. This will be their fifth consecutive road game where the opponent’s line was -200 or lower. New York lost the previous four and total finished over in all four matchups.

Veteran goalie Henrik Lundqvist (upper body) has missed three games in a row but is expected to start for New York. Lundqvist is 21-12-4 with a 2.65 goals-against average and .908 save percentage against the Capitals during his career.

The Capitals are 45-24-7, including a stellar 26-9-2 home record, as they push to finish at the top of their division. Veteran left wing Alex Ovechkin, who leads the NHL with 45 goals, has helped Washington go 8-2 in its last 10 home games against Metropolitan Division rivals. Washington coach Barry Trotz, whose team is on a six-game home win streak, has a healthy lineup at his disposal.

Washington has won by at least two goals in five of its last 10 games as a home favorite of -200 to -500, so the minus-1.5 goals puck line contains some value.

Washington goalie Braden Holtby (lower-body injury) is expected to start after being spelled by Philipp Grubauer when these same two teams played in New York on Monday. Over his career, Holtby is 9-9-1 with a 2.44 goals-against average and .918 save percentage against the Rangers.

The teams’ over/under splits are nearly identical, with the over holding a 19-17 mark in Rangers’ road games and a 19-17-1 mark in Capitals’ home games.

The total has gone under in five of New York’s last six home games when it was a moneyline  underdog of +200 or higher. The total has gone under in six of Washington’s last nine home games when it was a moneyline favorite of -225 to -500.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.