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Wales, Germany Looking at Underdog Odds for Euro 2016 Semifinals

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Wales-Portugal is the undercard to the Germany-France heavyweight showdown in the Euro 2016 semifinals, but less sexy matchups often offer more value to smart bettors.

Prognostication for knockout games often boils down to how much stock one puts in a team’s potential versus actual performance in the tournament. Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, in spite of winning only once in five fixtures, are the +115 betting favorite for Wednesday’s match in Lyon, France at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

First-time semifinalist Wales, led by Ronaldo’s Real Madrid teammate Gareth Bale, is the longshot at +320, with the draw at +210.

Going into Thursday’s matchup in Marseille, France is the slight +180 favorite with a Germany win and a draw each paying out +200. Those odds reflect how the teams have flip-flopped at the top of the future boards, but neither has been utterly dominant. Germany, of course, is 7-0 in knockout games against host nations in major tournaments.

Wales and Portugal might each be down two starters. While Wales is down playmaking MF Aaron Ramsey and D Ben Davies due to yellow card accumulation, Portugal will not have MF William Carvalho (yellows) and D Pepe (thigh) is doubtful. Wales’ losses are probably more significant, but it has had a stronger, more cohesive effort over five games than Portugal.

France manager Didier Deschamps will have his full squad, but the concern regarding Les Bleus stems from having a fairly easy ride through the Republic of Ireland and Iceland in their first two knockout games. Tournament scoring leader Antoine Griezmann, along with Olivier Giroud and Dimitri Payet, should all be relatively fresh. Having three dangerous scorers also means France has several ways to go at Germany’s 3-5-2 setup.

Germany, primarily through MF Toni Kroos, has been the best passing team at Euro 2016 and usually controls possession. It also has some recent history on its side since it eliminated France in the quarterfinal of the 2014 World Cup before going on to win the title. Of late, Germany has been chronically unable to finish off scoring opportunities, and Thomas Muller has yet to score in the tournament.

Germany also has to reset mentally after a grueling quarterfinal against Italy that included a marathon penalty shootout. Defender Mats Hummels (accumulation), F Mario Gomez (hamstring) and MF Sami Khedra (adductor) will all be unavailable on Thursday.

Many fans and media like to cite past matchups as possible omens for a big game. While Germany bounced France two years ago, France has won both major international tournaments that it has hosted. That included the 1984 Euro, where their semifinal was also in Marseille.

Germany and France enter their semifinal matchup as the co-favorites to win the tournament

A Season In Seattle With The Seattle Sounders FC

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It was a season of ever-changing narrative for the now MLS Cup champion Seattle Sounders. A season that saw Obafemi Martins decamp to China before a ball was kicked, Clint Dempsey sidelined by heart problems, a midseason coaching change, Jordan Morris declared an early-season bust and then given Rookie of the Year honors. We’re exhausted just thinking about it. For more perspective on an emotionally turbulent season that ended in glory, we turn to a man who lived it every day: The Seattle Times’ Sounders beat writer, Matt Pentz.

MiB: You covered the Sounders, day-in, day-out, for the last nine months. How do you understand this season?

MP: Probably the biggest misconception about my job is that I’m a diehard Sounders fan, that I’m openly rooting them on from the press box. But as a reporter, my position entails unbiased neutrality. Obviously, it’s more complicated than that — as you develop working relationships with coaches and players, with an up-close view of their personal struggles, on a human level you connect with them — but I often say that my only rooting interest is for a good story.

And in that, more than anything else, this season was good to me.

This team was never boring, and the narrative was always fresh. It’s almost hard to believe that Obafemi was on this roster and expected to be a major contributor just weeks before this season kicked off.

Watching Jordan’s development as a player was a true joy of this campaign. He’s such an easy kid to pull for, and those early struggles so obviously ate away at him. The Sigi firing was tough, honestly. I have so much respect for his accomplishments as a coach, and he was unnecessarily kind to me when I was first getting my footing on the beat. On the flip side of that, seeing Seattle’s own Brian Schmetzer get to bring that long-sought MLS Cup to his hometown was really cool to experience.

MiB: The obvious aside, was there a more nuanced, subtle changed the helped the Sounders turn their season around? A detail that someone who isn’t around the team as much as yourself might not know.

MP: The ease with which Schmetzer won over the locker room I think glosses over just how crucial those early days of his tenure were. To shamelessly plug my own work, the Clint Dempsey section of this feature [READ HERE] gives a behind-the-scenes glimpse at how Schmetzer was able to get Seattle’s veterans onboard what he was trying to accomplish.

The midseason arrival of Nicolas Lodeiro from Boca Juniors was also so, so important, not just on the field but in the locker room, as well. One of my favorite anecdotes from this season is that, prior to his first game with the Sounders back in late July, Lodeiro took it upon himself to shut off the team’s usual pregame music and told his new teammates they needed to focus. An action like that takes some balls, and it’s illustrative of how he was immediately able to put his stamp on team. The return of influential center back Roman Torres from injury didn’t hurt, either.

MiB: That Saturday night performance from Stefan Frei. Put in context what it was like to witness that in person. And give us a sense of the kind of person he is on the pitch, in the locker room and away from football.

MP: Stefan was transcendent on Saturday in Toronto. And going back to that rooting-for-a-good-story mantra in the intro, you can’t ask for much more than the hero playing like that three years to the day that he was traded from the very team he is helping defeat. For Frei to be able to go back to BMO Field, where he had struggled through two seasons filled with injury before getting dealt to Seattle, speaks to his mental toughness.

Stefan is a pretty introspective guy. He’s been open about how shattered his confidence was when he arrived in Seattle, as well as how important the belief of goalkeeper coach Tom Dutra in him was. Frei really has come into his own here, and he has spoken often about how much he loves his adopted city. He certainly gave Seattle a memory to cherish on Saturday night. Defender Chad Marshall called Frei’s save on Jozy Altidore’s header the best he’s ever seen in person, and given everything at stake, I would have to agree with that assessment.

MiB: You recently wrote a fantastic piece on how Sigi Schmid was experiencing Seattle’s run up to MLS Cup [READ HERE]. He was in Toronto Saturday night for work with the league. How do you think he felt after the final?

MP: I think it was probably tough on him, as much as he’ll publicly say he is happy for the players, his former staff and his son, Kurt, who is still an assistant coach within the organization.

Schmid was so instrumental in getting this club up and running in the way that it did, and he devoted a lot of years in pursuit of the goal finally achieved last weekend. It’s hard to argue against the decision to let him go, given how the rest of the season transpired and how Schmetzer was able to push so many of the right buttons. But it’s hard not to feel sympathetic for Schmid, the Moses figure in the modern history of the Sounders who took them so close to the promised land but wasn’t allowed to set foot in it himself.

MiB: When Roman Torres’ shot hit the back of the net, it wasn’t just the culmination of Seattle’s season, but also the nine months you’ve spent trekking around North America following the club. As a beat writer, how do you experience the end of this championship season emotionally? And what did you do after your story was filed the night of the game?

MP: It was a special moment for me, too, both in a personal and professional sense. This was my first MLS Cup, either as a fan or a reporter, and the atmosphere in Toronto was electric. This is the first championship team I’ve ever covered, and I won’t soon forget that post-game locker room, shielding my cell phone and recorder from the Heineken showers. Very few reporters in any sport get the chance to experience something like that, so I made sure to soak it all in — literally, in the case of my jacket and all of that beer raining down.

I wish I had a more exciting story for what I did after I filed my game story, that me and Seattle Times columnist Larry Stone took to the town afterward. But kickoff was so late on the East Coast that we didn’t even leave the press box until 2, when all of the Toronto bars shut down for the night. I did have a couple of Canadian beers the next afternoon and evening to commemorate the occasion, though. Major League Soccer’s offseason is so short that I figured I better take advantage when I can.

The Afghanistan Women’s National Team

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Modern football is a funny thing. Players are brands. Coaches are heads of state. And a club in China is willing to spend $64 million on Oscar. As Dickens said, portending that Oscar transfer specifically… Best of Times. Worst of Times.

Last week, we spoke with Haley Carter, goalkeeping coach and assistant manager for the Afghanistan Women’s National Football Team. Carter also happens to be a United States Naval Academy Graduate, two-time Iraq veteran, former NWSL goalkeeper for the Houston Dash, and, as she proudly points out, a mother and wife. While the conversation left us feeling even more inadequate than usual, the story she told was one that drove home our long standing belief that football is often the least important, most important part of life. Or as Haley put it so beautifully, “This little speck of optimism in a really chaotic world.”

After our interview, we produced a short digital video about the Afghanistan WNT, its history, the challenges players face, and the hope it provides for women across that nation. WATCH IT HERE.

As Haley says in the video, “The bottom line here is we’re talking life and death to be able to play this game.”

The team’s players are scattered around the globe with roughly a third coming from Afghanistan itself, a third coming from Europe and a third from North America. Despite what Haley called tremendous support from the Afghanistan Football Federation, funding for the team is tight, and they can rarely afford to get together for training camps. As a result, they rely heavily on funding from outside sources. The team has partnered with Soccer Without Borders in an effort to raise money. CLICK HERE for more on how you can help, and more on the team’s story. #Courage